Grimsby 1-4 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Walsall at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grimsby face Walsall.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grimsby host Walsall at Blundell Park in League Two (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Grimsby stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Grimsby's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Walsall — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Walsall's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Grimsby 1.80 PPG, Walsall 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Grimsby, 1 for Walsall and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2024, ended Grimsby 1–6 Walsall — a Walsall win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Grimsby in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Walsall in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grimsby 62% and Walsall 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 52% | Walsall 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.23 xG and Walsall 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 0.956 / defence 1.236 | Walsall attack 1.132 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.212. Grimsby's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Walsall's projected output up. Data: built from Grimsby's last 57 games and Walsall's last 56.
Result probabilities: Grimsby 28% | Draw 24% | Walsall 48%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 3.60 | Draw 4.18 | Walsall 2.07. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Walsall as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Grimsby's last 10 home games and Walsall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Grimsby 50% (last 10 home games) | Walsall 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, matchday 12 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 28% | Draw 24% | Walsall 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Grimsby 1.23 / Walsall 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 0.956 / def 1.236 | Walsall attack 1.132 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Walsall (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Walsall xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grimsby vs Walsall FAQs
What time does Grimsby vs Walsall kick off?
Grimsby vs Walsall kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs Walsall?
Grimsby 1 - 4 Walsall.
Where is Grimsby vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Walsall part of?
Grimsby vs Walsall is a League Two fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 28% chance of winning, Walsall a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Grimsby and Walsall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Grimsby vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grimsby's attack rating (0.96) and Walsall's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Grimsby's last 57 games and Walsall's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
28%
3.60
24%
4.18
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Grimsby xG
Total xG
2.93
1.70
Walsall xG
3.60
28%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
5%
19.61
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grimsby vs Walsall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.70 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grimsby come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 15D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.50 PPG from 56 outings (24W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grimsby on 1.18 PPG, Walsall on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Grimsby's home form reads 12W 4D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 6D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Grimsby are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.57 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grimsby have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Walsall in 64%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Blended
Walsall
Blended
Grimsby (Home) vs Walsall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grimsby
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Grimsby vs Walsall Form FAQs
What form are Grimsby and Walsall in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 17W 15D 24L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while Walsall have gone 24W 12D 20L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or Walsall away?
Grimsby's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.48 PPG; Walsall away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jan 2024, when Walsall won Grimsby 1-6 Walsall.
Grimsby's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Grimsby
4
Draws
2
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Grimsby vs Walsall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Walsall?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Grimsby have won 3, Walsall have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Walsall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Walsall 0-0 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Grimsby and Walsall?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 67%, Walsall 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Grimsby and 63% for Walsall. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Walsall in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grimsby vs Walsall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grimsby and Walsall matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Grimsby's games and 63% of Walsall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Grimsby and Walsall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Grimsby's matches and 63% of Walsall's.
Do Grimsby and Walsall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Grimsby's recent matches and 85% of Walsall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Walsall run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Grimsby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Grimsby 1-4 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.23 xG and Walsall 1.70 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Walsall outscored their 1.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against Walsall attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 28% | Draw 24% | Walsall 48%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 52%, Walsall 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Walsall's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.18 PPG, Walsall 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Grimsby (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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