Grimsby 1-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grimsby vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Stockport County travel to Blundell Park to take on Grimsby. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 January 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grimsby stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grimsby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grimsby's home record at Blundell Park: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stockport County — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stockport County are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Grimsby, 0 for Stockport County and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Grimsby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Grimsby trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stockport County trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grimsby 59% versus Stockport County 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 46% | Stockport County 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 0.95 xG and Stockport County 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 0.937 / defence 1.343 | Stockport County attack 1.290 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.125. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Grimsby games / 22 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grimsby 18% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 60%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Stockport County 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grimsby 70% | Stockport County 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 18% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Grimsby 0.95 / Stockport County 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 0.937 / def 1.343 | Stockport County attack 1.290 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Stockport County xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grimsby vs Stockport County kick off?
Grimsby vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 January 2023 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Grimsby 1 - 0 Stockport County.
Where is Grimsby vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Stockport County part of?
Grimsby vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 18% chance of winning, Stockport County a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Grimsby and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Grimsby vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Grimsby 1W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 0W.
What form are Grimsby and Stockport County in?
Grimsby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grimsby's attack rating (0.94) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
18%
5.67
22%
4.54
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Grimsby xG
Total xG
2.90
1.95
Stockport County xG
5.67
18%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
14%
7.03
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
3%
39.85
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.95 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Stockport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grimsby come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 6D 9L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Grimsby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (10W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grimsby on 1.23 PPG, Stockport County on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Grimsby's home form reads 2W 5D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.45 points per game from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Grimsby are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grimsby and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 10W 4D 8L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.00 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Grimsby or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stockport County in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grimsby and Stockport County runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Grimsby's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Grimsby
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Grimsby have won 2, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Grimsby 1-3 Stockport County.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 73%, Stockport County 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Grimsby) and 64% (Stockport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stockport County in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grimsby play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Grimsby's games and 54% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grimsby vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Grimsby's matches and 64% of Stockport County's.
Do Grimsby and Stockport County tend to score early?
Grimsby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grimsby defy the odds to beat Stockport County 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat Stockport County 1-0 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 0.95 xG and Stockport County 1.95 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.94 / defence 1.34 against Stockport County attack 1.29 / defence 0.87, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 18% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 60%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Grimsby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 46%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Stockport County's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.23 PPG, Stockport County 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Grimsby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.