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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Grimsby 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Grimsby 1-2 at Blundell Park, Semi-finals, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.54 xG and Salford City 0.98 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 1.35 / defence 0.91 against Salford City attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grimsby 50% | Draw 26% | Salford City 24%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 53%, Salford City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grimsby's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.59 PPG, Salford City 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights