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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grimsby cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Salford City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grimsby beat Salford City 3-1 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.20 xG and Salford City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Grimsby beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Salford City attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grimsby 36% | Draw 28% | Salford City 36%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 52%, Salford City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grimsby's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.52 PPG, Salford City 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights