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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Notts County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Grimsby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Grimsby 0-2 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.55 xG and Notts County 1.66 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Grimsby fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 1.07 / defence 1.22 against Notts County attack 1.28 / defence 1.13, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grimsby 36% | Draw 23% | Notts County 40%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 53%, Notts County 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grimsby's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Notts County's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.30 PPG, Notts County 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Grimsby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights