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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Grimsby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Grimsby 1-3 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.60 xG and Harrogate Town 0.74 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Harrogate Town outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 1.25 / defence 0.79 against Harrogate Town attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 84/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grimsby 58% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 17%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Harrogate Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 51%, Harrogate Town 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grimsby's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Harrogate Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Grimsby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights