🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Grimsby edge out Gillingham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grimsby beat Gillingham 1-0 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.75 xG and Gillingham 1.44 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 1.24 / defence 1.06 against Gillingham attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grimsby 45% | Draw 23% | Gillingham 32%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 59%, Gillingham 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grimsby's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Gillingham's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.53 PPG, Gillingham 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Grimsby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights