Grimsby 1-0 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grimsby at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grimsby face Fleetwood Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fleetwood Town travel to Blundell Park to take on Grimsby in League Two (matchday 38). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Grimsby stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Grimsby have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Fleetwood Town have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fleetwood Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Grimsby) versus 1.40 (Fleetwood Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Grimsby have won 2, Fleetwood Town 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2026, ended Grimsby 1–0 Fleetwood Town — a Grimsby win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Grimsby in-play tendencies (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town in-play tendencies (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grimsby 52% versus Fleetwood Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 51% | Fleetwood Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.15 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 1.109 / defence 0.877 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.858 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.185. Data: built from Grimsby's last 82 games and Fleetwood Town's last 83.
Result probabilities: Grimsby 42% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 28%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 2.40 | Draw 3.32 | Fleetwood Town 3.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grimsby are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grimsby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Grimsby's last 10 home games and Fleetwood Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Grimsby 50% (last 10 home games) | Fleetwood Town 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 38 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 42% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Grimsby 1.15 / Fleetwood Town 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 1.109 / def 0.877 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.858 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fleetwood Town xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town FAQs
What time does Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town?
Grimsby 1 - 0 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 42% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Grimsby and Fleetwood Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grimsby's attack at 1.11x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Grimsby's last 82 games and Fleetwood Town's last 83 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.32
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Grimsby xG
Total xG
2.04
0.89
Fleetwood Town xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Grimsby and 0.89 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grimsby come into this having played 82 games, going 35W 19D 28L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 1.32 PPG from 82 outings (27W 27D 28L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grimsby on 1.51 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Grimsby's home form reads 18W 8D 15L across their last 41 home games, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 41 away games (14W 8D 19L).
Goals in Recent Form
Grimsby are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.29 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
Grimsby (Home) vs Fleetwood Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grimsby
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town Form FAQs
What form are Grimsby and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 35W 19D 28L in their last 82 games (1.51 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 27W 27D 28L in their last 82 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Grimsby's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.51 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Grimsby's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Grimsby
1
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Fleetwood Town?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Grimsby have won 3, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Grimsby 2-2 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Grimsby and Fleetwood Town?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 54%, Fleetwood Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Grimsby) and 51% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Grimsby have failed to score in 27% of games; Fleetwood Town in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grimsby and Fleetwood Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Grimsby's recent matches and 54% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Grimsby and Fleetwood Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Grimsby's recent games and 51% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grimsby and Fleetwood Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Grimsby's recent matches and 71% of Fleetwood Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grimsby edge out Fleetwood Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat Fleetwood Town 1-0 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.15 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.89 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fleetwood Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 42% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 28%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 51%, Fleetwood Town 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.51 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Grimsby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 38
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →