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Dominant Grimsby run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grimsby beat Crawley Town 3-0 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.46 xG and Crawley Town 1.04 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Grimsby beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Crawley Town attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grimsby 47% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 26%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 59%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grimsby's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Crawley Town's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights