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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grimsby and Cambridge United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 8, as Grimsby and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.54 xG and Cambridge United 1.02 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Cambridge United attack 0.94 / defence 1.29, drawn from 53/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grimsby 49% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 25%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 58%, Cambridge United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grimsby's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights