Grimsby vs Accrington ST – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Grimsby's attack rating (0.89) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
25%
3.97
22%
4.47
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Grimsby xG
Total xG
3.33
1.99
Accrington ST xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
14%
7.34
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
3%
29.18
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.99 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.