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Prediction vindicated as Gillingham edge out Walsall 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham beat Walsall 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.06 xG and Walsall 0.94 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Walsall landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Walsall attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 37% | Draw 33% | Walsall 30%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 28%, Walsall 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Walsall's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Gillingham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights