🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Tranmere 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham beat Tranmere 2-1 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.69 xG and Tranmere 1.81 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Tranmere landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 1.05 / defence 1.25 against Tranmere attack 1.21 / defence 1.26, drawn from 74/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 36% | Draw 22% | Tranmere 41%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Gillingham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 34%, Tranmere 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Tranmere's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.30 PPG, Tranmere 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights