Gillingham 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gillingham vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 42 sees Stockport County travel to MEMS Priestfield Stadium to take on Gillingham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at MEMS Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEMS Priestfield Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gillingham are significantly better at MEMS Priestfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stockport County's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Stockport County's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Gillingham's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Gillingham's 30% rate and Stockport County's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gillingham, 0 for Stockport County and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gillingham trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 27% versus Stockport County 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 22% | Stockport County 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 0.78 xG and Stockport County 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.870 / defence 0.904 | Stockport County attack 1.014 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.058. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Gillingham games / 41 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 37% | Stockport County 37%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Stockport County 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 30% | Stockport County 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: MEMS Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 37% | Stockport County 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Gillingham 0.78 / Stockport County 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.870 / def 0.904 | Stockport County attack 1.014 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Stockport County xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Stockport County kick off?
Gillingham vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Gillingham 1 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Gillingham vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Stockport County part of?
Gillingham vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 26% chance of winning, Stockport County a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Gillingham and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Gillingham 0W | Draws 1 | Stockport County 0W.
What form are Gillingham and Stockport County in?
Gillingham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.87x the league average against Stockport County's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
26%
3.78
37%
2.74
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Gillingham xG
Total xG
1.75
0.97
Stockport County xG
3.78
26%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 16.9 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Gillingham and 0.97 for Stockport County, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gillingham's recent record stands at 12W 11D 18L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 11L across 41 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 10W 4D 6L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Gillingham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stockport County's away record stands at 10W 2D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.39 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gillingham have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Stockport County in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 12W 11D 18L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 20W 10D 11L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Stockport County away?
Gillingham's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.70 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Stockport County in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gillingham's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gillingham
3
Draws
0
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 1, Stockport County have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2024, when Gillingham 0-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Stockport County?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Gillingham 25% BTTS, Stockport County 45%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Gillingham and 45% for Stockport County.
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Stockport County in 40%; Gillingham have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Gillingham's recent matches and 45% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Gillingham's recent games and 45% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gillingham and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MEMS Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 42, as Gillingham and Stockport County drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 0.78 xG and Stockport County 0.97 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Stockport County attack 1.01 / defence 0.74, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 26% | Draw 37% | Stockport County 37%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 22%, Stockport County 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.