Gillingham 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shrewsbury at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shrewsbury travel to Priestfield Stadium to take on Gillingham in League Two (matchday 46). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gillingham have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Gillingham have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Gillingham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shrewsbury stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Shrewsbury have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Shrewsbury's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Gillingham's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Gillingham, 1 for Shrewsbury and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Gillingham 3–3 Shrewsbury — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 50% versus Shrewsbury 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 37% | Shrewsbury 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.37 xG and Shrewsbury 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.917 / defence 1.480 | Shrewsbury attack 0.771 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.207. Shrewsbury's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Gillingham's defence rating of 1.480 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shrewsbury's projected output up. Data: built from Gillingham's last 91 games and Shrewsbury's last 45.
Result probabilities: Gillingham 37% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 37%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 2.70 | Draw 3.91 | Shrewsbury 2.67. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Gillingham 37% and Shrewsbury 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Gillingham's last 10 home games and Shrewsbury's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gillingham 70% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League Two, matchday 46 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 37% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Gillingham 1.37 / Shrewsbury 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.917 / def 1.480 | Shrewsbury attack 0.771 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Gillingham and Shrewsbury level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Shrewsbury xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gillingham vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Gillingham vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Gillingham vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Shrewsbury?
Gillingham 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Gillingham vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Shrewsbury part of?
Gillingham vs Shrewsbury is a League Two fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 37% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gillingham and Shrewsbury will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gillingham vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.92x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gillingham's last 91 games and Shrewsbury's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.91
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.75
1.38
Shrewsbury xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gillingham vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.38 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gillingham come into this having played 91 games, going 26W 30D 35L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 0.90 PPG from 91 outings (21W 19D 51L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.19 PPG, Shrewsbury on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gillingham's home form reads 17W 12D 16L across their last 45 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.69 points per game from their last 45 away games (7W 10D 28L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gillingham are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.91 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Gillingham (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gillingham
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Gillingham vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Gillingham and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 26W 30D 35L in their last 91 games (1.19 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 21W 19D 51L in their last 91 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Shrewsbury away?
Gillingham's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.40 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gillingham have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Gillingham's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gillingham
2
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Gillingham vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Shrewsbury?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Gillingham have won 2, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Shrewsbury 1-2 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Shrewsbury?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 51%, Shrewsbury 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gillingham) and 51% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gillingham vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gillingham and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Gillingham's recent matches and 56% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gillingham and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gillingham's recent games and 51% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Gillingham's recent matches and 67% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.37 xG and Shrewsbury 1.38 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.92 / defence 1.48 against Shrewsbury attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 37% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 37%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 37%, Shrewsbury 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.19 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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