🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Gillingham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Gillingham 1-2 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.13 xG and Salford City 0.87 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.86 / defence 0.75 against Salford City attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 42% | Draw 30% | Salford City 28%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 29%, Salford City 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Salford City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.36 PPG, Salford City 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights