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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Gillingham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Gillingham 1-2 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.12 xG and Notts County 1.72 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Notts County attack 1.39 / defence 1.06, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 24% | Draw 26% | Notts County 50%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 35%, Notts County 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Notts County's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.33 PPG, Notts County 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights