🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gillingham edge out Morecambe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham beat Morecambe 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.06 xG and Morecambe 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Morecambe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.75 / defence 1.12 against Morecambe attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 37% | Draw 32% | Morecambe 32%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 36%, Morecambe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Morecambe's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.27 PPG, Morecambe 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights