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Shock result as Harrogate Town defy the odds to beat Gillingham 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Gillingham 0-1 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.50 xG and Harrogate Town 0.64 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 1.11 / defence 0.67 against Harrogate Town attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 58% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 16%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Harrogate Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 29%, Harrogate Town 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.44 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights