🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Fleetwood Town defy the odds to beat Gillingham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Gillingham 1-2 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.19 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.00 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fleetwood Town outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 77/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 39% | Draw 31% | Fleetwood Town 30%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Fleetwood Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 35%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.29 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights