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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gillingham and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham and Crawley Town finished level at 2-2 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.55 xG and Crawley Town 0.69 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against Crawley Town attack 0.68 / defence 1.32, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 58% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 16%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 30%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Crawley Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.36 PPG, Crawley Town 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights