Gillingham 0-2 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gillingham at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gillingham face Crawley Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Crawley Town travel to Priestfield Stadium to take on Gillingham in League Two (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gillingham stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gillingham at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gillingham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Crawley Town have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gillingham at 1.00 PPG versus Crawley Town's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Gillingham have won 2, Crawley Town 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Gillingham 1–0 Crawley Town — a Gillingham win.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 32% versus Crawley Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 28% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.52 xG and Crawley Town 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.816 / defence 0.941 | Crawley Town attack 0.888 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.288. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gillingham's projected output up. Data: built from Gillingham's last 68 games and Crawley Town's last 68.
Result probabilities: Gillingham 46% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 2.16 | Draw 3.62 | Crawley Town 3.85. Gillingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gillingham as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gillingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 0.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches — though recent form (Gillingham's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gillingham 50% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 24 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 46% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Gillingham 1.52 / Crawley Town 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.816 / def 0.941 | Crawley Town attack 0.888 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Crawley Town xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gillingham vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Gillingham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Gillingham vs Crawley Town kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Gillingham 0 - 2 Crawley Town.
Where is Gillingham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Crawley Town part of?
Gillingham vs Crawley Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 46% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gillingham and Crawley Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gillingham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gillingham's attack rating (0.82) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gillingham's last 68 games and Crawley Town's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.62
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.59
1.08
Crawley Town xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gillingham vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.08 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gillingham come into this having played 68 games, going 24W 15D 29L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.12 PPG from 68 outings (20W 16D 32L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.28 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gillingham's home form reads 16W 6D 11L across their last 33 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.64 points per game from their last 33 away games (4W 9D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
Gillingham (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gillingham
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Gillingham vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Gillingham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 24W 15D 29L in their last 68 games (1.28 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 20W 16D 32L in their last 68 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Crawley Town away?
Gillingham's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.64 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 28 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gillingham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gillingham
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Gillingham vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crawley Town?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gillingham have won 2, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2026: Crawley Town 2-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 36%, Crawley Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Gillingham) and 54% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 33% of games; Crawley Town in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gillingham vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gillingham and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Gillingham's recent matches and 54% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gillingham and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Gillingham's recent games and 54% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Gillingham's recent matches and 73% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Gillingham 0-2 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.52 xG and Crawley Town 1.08 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gillingham fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Crawley Town outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.22, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 46% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 26%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 28%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.28 PPG, Crawley Town 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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