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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gillingham and Cheltenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Gillingham and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 2.09 xG and Cheltenham 0.61 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gillingham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.93 / defence 0.71 against Cheltenham attack 0.74 / defence 1.64, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 72% | Draw 18% | Cheltenham 10%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 30%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Cheltenham's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.39 PPG, Cheltenham 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights