Gillingham 1-2 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gillingham (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gillingham face Accrington ST.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 11 as Gillingham welcome Accrington ST to Priestfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham's home record at Priestfield Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Priestfield Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Gillingham are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Gillingham: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Accrington ST, with 1 draws across those contests.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Gillingham winning.
The historical record gives Gillingham a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gillingham in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 38% versus Accrington ST 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 34% | Accrington ST 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 2.17 xG and Accrington ST 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 1.125 / defence 0.718 | Accrington ST attack 0.857 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.190. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Gillingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Gillingham's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Gillingham games / 55 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 70% | Draw 18% | Accrington ST 11%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Accrington ST 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Gillingham (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gillingham are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Gillingham 40% | Accrington ST 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 70% | Draw 18% | Accrington ST 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 46% | xG Gillingham 2.17 / Accrington ST 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 1.125 / def 0.718 | Accrington ST attack 0.857 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (70%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Accrington ST xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Accrington ST kick off?
Gillingham vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 October 2024 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Gillingham 1 - 2 Accrington ST.
Where is Gillingham vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Accrington ST part of?
Gillingham vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 70% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gillingham and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Accrington ST?
Record (4 meetings): Gillingham 3W | Draws 1 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Gillingham and Accrington ST in?
Gillingham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 1.12x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.44
11%
8.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.90
0.73
Accrington ST xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
8.87
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
34%
2.96
1%
77.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Gillingham and 0.73 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gillingham's recent record stands at 23W 11D 21L from 55 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 26L across 55 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.45 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 12W 9D 6L from 27 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 6W 4D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gillingham are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.35 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST in 62%.
Defensively: Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 23W 11D 21L in their last 55 games (1.45 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 17W 12D 26L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Accrington ST away?
Gillingham's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.67 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gillingham and Accrington ST runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gillingham's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gillingham
3
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Accrington ST?
From 8 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 4, Accrington ST have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Gillingham 2-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Accrington ST?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 44%, Accrington ST 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gillingham) and 67% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Gillingham's games and 70% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gillingham vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gillingham's recent games and 67% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Gillingham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Gillingham 1-2 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 2.17 xG and Accrington ST 0.73 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gillingham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Accrington ST outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 1.12 / defence 0.72 against Accrington ST attack 0.86 / defence 1.41, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 70% | Draw 18% | Accrington ST 11%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Accrington ST win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 34%, Accrington ST 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Accrington ST's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.45 PPG, Accrington ST 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.