🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Fleetwood Town and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Fleetwood Town and Swindon Town drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.93 xG and Swindon Town 1.63 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fleetwood Town fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.24 / defence 1.19 against Swindon Town attack 1.14 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 45% | Draw 22% | Swindon Town 33%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 49%, Swindon Town 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Swindon Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.34 PPG, Swindon Town 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights