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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fleetwood Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Shrewsbury 3-1 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 2.31 xG and Shrewsbury 1.15 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.19 / defence 1.14 against Shrewsbury attack 0.85 / defence 1.45, drawn from 62/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 63% | Draw 19% | Shrewsbury 18%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 48%, Shrewsbury 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fleetwood Town arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights