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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fleetwood Town and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town and Port Vale finished level at 1-1 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.29 xG and Port Vale 1.04 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Port Vale attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 42% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 30%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 51%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (79 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (79 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.14 PPG, Port Vale 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights