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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fleetwood Town and Oldham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Fleetwood Town and Oldham drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.03 xG and Oldham 0.86 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against Oldham attack 0.62 / defence 0.82, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 38% | Draw 33% | Oldham 29%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 75%, Oldham 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Oldham's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fleetwood Town arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights