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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Fleetwood Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Fleetwood Town 1-2 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.22 xG and Notts County 1.32 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Notts County attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 34% | Draw 27% | Notts County 39%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 49%, Notts County 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Notts County's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.33 PPG, Notts County 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights