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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fleetwood Town edge out Harrogate Town 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Harrogate Town 3-2 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.48 xG and Harrogate Town 1.19 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fleetwood Town beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Harrogate Town outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.17 / defence 1.19 against Harrogate Town attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 44% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 30%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 47%, Harrogate Town 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.32 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights