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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fleetwood Town and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town and Harrogate Town finished level at 1-1 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.21 xG and Harrogate Town 0.93 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against Harrogate Town attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 20/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 42% | Draw 31% | Harrogate Town 27%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 48%, Harrogate Town 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.05 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights