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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fleetwood Town edge out Gillingham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Gillingham 2-1 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.57 xG and Gillingham 1.34 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.20 / defence 1.06 against Gillingham attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 42% | Draw 26% | Gillingham 32%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 48%, Gillingham 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Gillingham's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.36 PPG, Gillingham 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights