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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Crewe run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fleetwood Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Fleetwood Town 1-4 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.12 xG and Crewe 1.15 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Crewe attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 34% | Draw 31% | Crewe 35%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 49%, Crewe 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Crewe's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.37 PPG, Crewe 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights