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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fleetwood Town edge out Crawley Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Crawley Town 1-0 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.38 xG and Crawley Town 0.70 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Crawley Town attack 0.54 / defence 1.18, drawn from 84/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 53% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 19%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 48%, Crawley Town 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Crawley Town's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Fleetwood Town arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights