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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fleetwood Town cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Colchester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Colchester 4-2 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.18 xG and Colchester 1.19 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Fleetwood Town beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Colchester outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Colchester attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 36% | Draw 28% | Colchester 36%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 47%, Colchester 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Colchester's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.31 PPG, Colchester 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights