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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Fleetwood Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carlisle beat Fleetwood Town 1-2 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.30 xG and Carlisle 0.84 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Carlisle outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Carlisle attack 0.75 / defence 1.14, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 46% | Draw 31% | Carlisle 23%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Carlisle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 49%, Carlisle 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Carlisle's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fleetwood Town arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Carlisle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights