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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cambridge United defy the odds to beat Fleetwood Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Fleetwood Town 1-2 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.21 xG and Cambridge United 0.93 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cambridge United outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against Cambridge United attack 0.74 / defence 0.85, drawn from 70/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 42% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 28%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cambridge United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 47%, Cambridge United 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.34 PPG, Cambridge United 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights