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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST finished level at 1-1 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.49 xG and Accrington ST 1.58 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Accrington ST attack 1.19 / defence 1.46, drawn from 17/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 36% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 40%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 51%, Accrington ST 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Accrington ST's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.03 PPG, Accrington ST 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights