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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Doncaster cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Tranmere 3-1 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.54 xG and Tranmere 0.88 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Doncaster beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Tranmere attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 52% | Draw 27% | Tranmere 21%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 57%, Tranmere 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights