🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Doncaster 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Doncaster 1-2 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.32 xG and Port Vale 0.82 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Port Vale outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Port Vale attack 0.71 / defence 0.94, drawn from 70/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 47% | Draw 31% | Port Vale 22%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 57%, Port Vale 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Port Vale winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights