🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Doncaster run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Newport County 3-0 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.46 xG and Newport County 1.27 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Doncaster beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Newport County landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Newport County attack 1.10 / defence 1.15, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 41% | Draw 27% | Newport County 32%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 58%, Newport County 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Newport County's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights