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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Harrogate Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.36 xG and Harrogate Town 1.11 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Harrogate Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 41% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 29%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 58%, Harrogate Town 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Doncaster 1.60 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock. Doncaster (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights