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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Grimsby defy the odds to beat Doncaster 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grimsby beat Doncaster 1-2 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.48 xG and Grimsby 1.16 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Grimsby outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Grimsby attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 44% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 29%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Grimsby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 58%, Grimsby 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Grimsby's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Grimsby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights