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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Fleetwood Town 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Fleetwood Town 2-1 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.65 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.15 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.00 / defence 1.22, drawn from 69/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 48% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 25%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 55%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights