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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Doncaster run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Colchester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Colchester 3-0 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.31 xG and Colchester 1.10 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Doncaster beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Colchester landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 1.20 / defence 1.01 against Colchester attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 40% | Draw 30% | Colchester 30%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 57%, Colchester 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Colchester's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights