Doncaster vs Cheltenham – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Doncaster's attack rating (0.89) and Cheltenham's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.99x) against Doncaster's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 64/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Doncaster Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.52
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Doncaster xG
Total xG
2.47
1.10
Cheltenham xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Doncaster vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Doncaster and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Doncaster and 1.10 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Doncaster vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.