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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Doncaster run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Carlisle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Carlisle 3-0 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.47 xG and Carlisle 0.80 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Doncaster beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 1.12 / defence 1.05 against Carlisle attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 83/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 53% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 20%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 58%, Carlisle 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Carlisle's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights