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Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Bradford 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Bradford 2-1 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.92 xG and Bradford 1.10 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 1.29 / defence 0.94 against Bradford attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 56% | Draw 23% | Bradford 21%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 58%, Bradford 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bradford's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Doncaster 1.69 PPG, Bradford 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights