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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Walsall run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Crewe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Crewe 0-3 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.36 xG and Walsall 1.17 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Crewe fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Walsall outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Walsall attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 41% | Draw 27% | Walsall 32%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Walsall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 40%, Walsall 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Walsall's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.44 PPG, Walsall 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights