🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Walsall edge out Crewe 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Crewe 0-1 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.12 xG and Walsall 1.21 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crewe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Walsall attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 33% | Draw 30% | Walsall 37%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 40%, Walsall 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (91 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Walsall's trading profile (91 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.44 PPG, Walsall 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Walsall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights